A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
